Arah suku bunga 6 bulan & 2 tahun ke depan

Prediksi:

...bakal naik 3x lagi @ 0.25% dalam 6 bulan ke depan...

and a further 2% for the next 2 yrs...

Salam suku bunga, 

E-Jay & Associates

游文源

Why Glenn Stevens is the best in the world

By David and Libby Koch

News Limited newspapers

October 12, 2009 12:00am

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RESERVE Bank Governor Glenn Stevens is regarded as one of the world's best (if not THE best) central bank bosses and last week he proved it.

No one likes interest rate increases but he had to lift rates last week or risk leaving it too late and potentially having to increase them a lot higher down the track.

Just have a look at what's happening around you. The residential property market is starting to overheat, consumers are still spending, unemployment will peak around the 6% mark rather than the expected 8% and company profit outlooks are rosier.

It's the property boom which would be of most concern to the RBA and the area which needs to be dampened quickly.

While the rest of the world economy is still struggling, the global financial crisis is officially over for Australia even though it turned out to be a lot wimpier than the pessimists expected.

Admittedly the Reserve Bank was a little slow to pick the economic downturn and shouldn't have passed on the last rate hike in March 2008, but they admitted their mistake quickly and decisively slashed rates soon after to levels not seen for 50 years.

Related Coverage

• Extraordinary times for RBACourier Mail, 7 Oct 2009
• Interest rates will rise againThe Australian, 30 Sep 2009
• Confidence returns to home sales in JuneNEWS.com.au, 11 Sep 2009
• Early rate rise a worryThe Australian, 28 Aug 2009
• House prices are unlikely to crashNEWS.com.au, 17 Aug 2009

Your Say

Funny article, Glenn Stevens best in the world.... Kochy your jokes are as bad as ever.. Unemployment has NOT peaked !. ...

(Read More)

John Hawke

It was that decisive action, plus the surpluses of the Coalition and the good economic management of the current Government, which have generally insulated us from the worst of the global crisis.

But you need to keep all these measures in perspective and relate them back to where we are in the economic cycle.

Remember economies move in cycles. Every boom ends in a bust and every downturn eventually starts to improve.

The key is timing the cycle.

Australia's official interest rates were slashed to a historically low 3 per cent because everyone thought the global economy was headed down the toilet with many forecasting a Depression. That cut was a Depression-fighting level and it worked.

A "normal" official interest rate level for a "normal" Australian economy is seen to be around 5-6% and that's where we'll eventually get back to in two years or so.

Because our economy didn't go in to Depression and has started to bounce back, the Reserve Bank has to start readjusting rates toward those normal levels.

Last week's 0.25 percentage point rate rise will probably be followed by three more similar rises over the next six months.

That will take official rates back to 4 per cent which is still way below "normal"' level, which means the Reserve Bank is hedging its bets against a big economic calamity overseas.

If that calamity doesn't happen then expect official rates to move up more quickly towards that 5-6 per cent mark.

That's the type of scenario you should be planning on over the next couple of years.

Mortgage rates could rise significantly and if you haven't got your debt levels under control then you're going to find it pretty tough.

Think of a car bogged in sand. You stick some wood under the wheels for traction (that's the Government's stimulus package), you then rev it up and step on the gas (cut interest rates) but when you're on solid ground you have to ease the accelerator (lift interest rates) or the car gets out of control and may crash.

The same with an economy.

If you need convincing, just look at the residential property market.

Houses which have been on the market for the last 18 months in our area have all sold in the last three weeks and I'm getting the same story from friends and Sunrise viewers in all the major capital cities.

A relative of ours sold their house to the first person who saw it and we sold a little investment unit in our superannuation fund on the first weekend it was open for inspection. Crazy stuff.

One of the main reasons our economy didn't plunge to the depths of the US and Europe was that our property values held up because of a lack of stock. US house prices dropped on average 25-30 per cent and it was the same, if not a little worse, in the UK.

By comparison with the rest of the world our residential property prices are very high.

They stagnated during the financial crisis rather than crashed. The last boom simply took a breather and is off again.

That worries us because there was really no major correction to speak of and the bigger the boom, the bigger the bust when it eventually comes.

Sumber: News, 12 October 09

Win-win Australian politics

...proving the lesson that a smart leader like Rudd does need to have & implement his strategies. Winning bipartisan support, whilst at the same time undermining the opponent & strengthening own party. / EJ

Rudd's strategy to spear and seduce

Paul Kelly, Editor-at-large | September 19, 2009

Article from:  The Australian

THERE is a touch of genius in Kevin Rudd's latest move; at one stroke he champions the unifying ethos of the Labor Party, suffocates the political lifeblood of the Liberal Party and strengthens Australia's diplomacy.

The appointments of Kim Beazley and Brendan Nelson strengthen Australia's profile in important capitals. They also reveal Rudd's complexity as a leader and the historic threat he poses to the Liberal Party of Australia. From the moment Rudd and Brendan Nelson had their friendly cup of tea some time ago, Rudd has been contemplating such an appointment.

The former Liberal leader, as Australian ambassador to the European Union and representative to NATO, will discharge his responsibility to the Labor government with flair and dedication. But this appointment betrays the weakness of the Liberal Party. Does anybody imagine that Kim Beazley, Simon Crean or Mark Latham as former ALP leaders would have accepted equivalent ambassadorial posts in the Howard government? It would have been inconceivable and John Howard would not have made them any such offer.

Yet Nelson heads to Brussels as Rudd's envoy ready to follow Rudd's instructions on trade liberalisation, climate change and Afghanistan strategy. The symbolism is lethal: the man the Liberal Party selected as its leader after the 2007 poll to confront Rudd in mortal combat has become part of Labor's governing apparatus. Nelson never became PM but he will become Rudd's man in Europe.

For Labor, it is an exquisite twist of the political knife. It demonstrates Rudd's expanding control of Australia's middle ground. The implicit message is that it is safe for Liberals to vote for Rudd. The Liberal brand is further weakened.

Howard was too tribal a leader to make such "reverse" political appointments. But Rudd is teaching the old tribal warriors a lesson: it is as easy to seduce your opponents as to slay them. This move is good news for the Rudd government and for Nelson. Because he is serving his country, there can be no objection to his decision. But there is no upside for the Liberal Party, its honour, integrity or principles.

Consider Nelson's farewell speech; he praised Howard, Peter Costello and Peter Reith, asked young people to maintain their idealism, expressed his admiration for George W. Bush and opposed the Rudd government's emissions trading legislation in yet another strike at Malcolm Turnbull knowing the whole time he was about to become Rudd's ambassador.

Consider Rudd's parliamentary reply to Nelson: he praised Nelson as a "decent human being", called him Brendan throughout, recalled their conversations about shared "adult grief" over the death of Nelson's father and Rudd's mother, congratulated Nelson for delivering the Liberal Party behind Rudd's 2008 apology to Aboriginal Australians, applauded Nelson as education minister and declared that "the Australian Labor Party salutes you". Nelson is the sort of Liberal leader that Labor usually only dreams about.

Nelson informed Turnbull of the appointment the morning it was announced. It was a neat Rudd-Nelson compact against Turnbull. The message is that Rudd has a refined grasp of bipartisanship as a technique to advance Labor's cause. This was an appointment on Rudd's terms. The public likes bipartisanship and this theme in his diplomatic appointments reveals Rudd's superior political touch to that of Howard.

It comes just a week after Rudd's partisan assault on the Liberal Party at the launch of my book, The March of Patriots, dismissing the party's claims on any role in Australia's economic modernisation. Such partisanship provoked a furious reply from Turnbull and Howard.

It reminds that Rudd spears and seduces the Liberals. There is a "man for all seasons" quality about Rudd as he moves effortlessly from a divisive dismissal of the Howard government's legitimacy to recruit contemporary Liberals into Labor's umbrella of patronage.

Have no doubt the Liberal Party is at a moment of historic weakness and the Labor Party is at a moment of historic strength. The Beazley and Nelson appointments testify to this. Rudd, with help from Foreign Minister Stephen Smith, got it exactly right. It was Smith, responding to Rudd, who proposed the Brussels appointment for Nelson. It is near perfect, without the sensitivity of Washington yet of a status that suits a former party leader.

Beazley is made for his role as ambassador to the US and the appointment won immediate bipartisan support. There is no figure in the national parliament with Beazley's experience in dealing with the US as academic, politician, defence minister, opposition leader and participant in the Australian-American Leadership Dialogue. But this decision was a moment of truth for Rudd.

If he had failed to appoint Beazley, waves of alarm and complaint would have been transmitted throughout the Labor Party. The decision was not automatic. Relations between Rudd and Beazley have been extremely tense since Rudd deposed Beazley as ALP leader in December 2006. Beazley's service to the party has been long and honourable with nothing more important than Beazley's arduous task as opposition leader after the 1996 defeat and his journey through this valley of tears keeping the Labor Party together and competitive.

The Washington post was the job Beazley wanted. His qualifications were so superior to any other candidate from the diplomatic service or politics that Rudd's overlooking of Beazley would have been a slight against the man and against his Labor history. Given Labor tribalism, it would have been a mistake sure to trigger a damaging internal debate about Rudd's values.

Rudd and Smith examined a shortlist of candidates and reached the natural decision. As a result Rudd has repaired bad blood, honoured a great Labor figure and appointed the best candidate. It mirrors Howard's appointment of former Liberal leader, Andrew Peacock as Australia's ambassador to the US.

Beazley has the standing to become a substantial figure in Washington's community in the broadest sense - dealing with the White House, the cabinet, Pentagon and State, the congress, think tanks and the media. He has the humility to work for Rudd, not an easy task for a former leader with his own deep views about the US alliance. Sensing this concern, Beazley was smart enough to stress he would no longer have his own views but devote himself to representing the Rudd government.

Rudd and Smith are destroying some myths about political appointments. The lesson from history is that the Australian people accept such appointments provided the politician is qualified. It is the rort of "jobs for the boys" without justification the public hates. Obviously, neither Beazley nor Nelson offend this rule.

Rudd has worked furiously with President Barack Obama to provide policy input into a range of issues spearheaded by Australia's proposals on the global financial crisis submitted via the Group of 20.

The two leaders have a sound working relationship.

There is a view in Canberra that nobody really advises Rudd on foreign policy. The reality in Washington, however, is that a new Obama administration is taking shape at a time of unusual American tribulation and global uncertainty with a desperate scramble among nations for influence in the US capital. For Australia, Beazley will be an astute ambassador whose great quality will be that all Americans will like him and some will love him.

Link: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26093488-7583,00.html

Pergulatan iman di tengah kebisuan Allah

Ketika Tuhan Membisu

Minggu, 12 April 2009

TRISNO S. SUTANTO

"Pertarunganku adalah dengan Kristianitas di dalam jiwaku sendiri." Rodrigues, dalam Silence

Saya masih ingat, walau samar-samar, ketika pertama kali saya menemukan novel Shusaku Endo, "Silence". Waktu itu musim dingin menjelang Natal 1991 di salah satu pojok "second hand bookstore" di East Lansing, kota cantik di tengah Michigan, Amerika Serikat.

Novel Silence melebihi seluruh harapan saya ketika membeli. Sepanjang musim dingin itu saya membacanya dan terperangah melihat bagaimana Endo mengolah bahan-bahan historis menjadi novel teologis yang luar biasa memikat, sekaligus mengajukan pertanyaan mendasar tentang keteguhan iman, harapan, dan masa depan kekristenan. Dan saya gembira, kini saya kembali menemukan Silence dalam versi Indonesia.

Tentu saja, sebagai novel, Silence selayaknya dibaca juga sebagai novel. Bukan traktat teologis atau kajian historis. Endo sengaja mengambil periode Kirishitan, yakni Jepang pada abad ke-16 dan 17 ketika kekristenan mengalami masa penindasan paling buruk, untuk melukiskan pergulatan teologis yang sudah lama menghantuinya. Dan justru karena itu, Silence memiliki nilai lebih ketimbang sekadar novel historis.

Dalam esainya Kirishitan and Today (1992), Endo memberi dua alasan mengapa periode itu sangat penting baginya sebagai novelis, walau ia mengaku bukan sejarawan. Pertama, Perang Dunia II menempatkan Endo pada posisi sulit karena perang itu seakan menghadapkan kekristenan yang diimani sebagai musuh atas dirinya sendiri sebagai orang Jepang. Kedua, konflik itu rupanya punya akar sangat dalam, bahkan eksistensial. "Sebagai seorang Jepang, saya selalu merasa tidak cocok dengan kekristenan yang sudah terbaratkan—bukan pada kekristenan itu sendiri, melainkan pada bentuk kekristenan tertentu yang ditempa peradaban Barat."

Karena itulah, Endo perlu menengok pada bagaimana orang Kristen Katolik menghadapi penindasan berat. Periode Kirishitan, yang sekaligus menandai titik pertemuan awal Jepang dengan kebudayaan Barat, memberi banyak bahan. Bagi Endo, menulis tentang periode gelap itu "bukan sekadar eksotisme, tetapi masalah mendesak bagi iman dan cara hidup saya". Novel Silence (asli: Chimmoku, 1969) adalah cermin pergulatan iman Endo.

Kepada majalah Kumo, Endo mengaku ia berulang kali ingin meninggalkan iman Katoliknya, tetapi tidak mampu. Ketidakmampuan itu, baginya, memperlihatkan bagaimanapun juga sebagian iman Kristen sudah mendarah daging dalam dirinya walau ia dibaptis (atau lebih tepat: dipaksa baptis) pada usia sangat muda.

"Tetapi, di hati saya masih saja ada perasaan kekatolikan itu sesuatu yang dipinjam, dan saya mulai bertanya-tanya, seperti apa saya sebenarnya," kata dia. "Saya rasa, inilah 'rawa-rawa' Jepang dalam diri saya. Sejak pertama kali mulai menulis novel, sampai hari ini, konfrontasi antara saya yang Katolik dan saya yang ada di bawahnya bisa diibaratkan pengulangan baris yang sama, yang terus-menerus berkumandang dalam karya saya. Saya merasa harus mencari jalan mendamaikan keduanya" (hal 19).

Dengan itu, Endo menyentuh persoalan mendasar yang selalu menghantui siapa pun yang ingin serius mempertanggungjawabkan imannya: sampai sejauh mana iman itu berakar, bertumbuh, dan berbuah dalam dialog dengan budaya lokal, dan bukan hasil imperialisme kultural ataupun teologis. Endo sangat serius dalam soal ini. Salah satu karya lainnya, A Life of Jesus (asli: Iesu no shogai, 1973), menceritakan kembali kisah Yesus yang diimaninya, ditujukan bagi orang Jepang yang asing dengan bahasa dogmatis kristiani. Hasilnya suatu potret jujur, sederhana, dan menyentuh figur Yesus yang serba rentan atau bahkan bisa disebut "gagal", tetapi setia menjalani rencana keselamatan Allah sampai titik akhir.

Kebisuan

Sisi kerentanan manusiawi Yesus inilah yang menjadi fokus refleksi iman Endo. Yesus yang diimaninya adalah figur yang kalah, dibuang, dihina, dan bahkan mati disalib sebagai pemberontak di mata Romawi dan terkutuk di mata pemuka agama Yahudi.

Itu juga potret Kakure Kirishitan, orang Kristen yang terpaksa harus menyembunyikan identitas iman mereka di tengah penindasan, lewat tokoh Sebastian Rodrigues—diambil dari tokoh historis Giuseppe Chiara, misionaris yang datang ke Jepang tahun 1643.

Plot cerita Silence sangat sederhana. Lewat kabar burung, Rodrigues mendengar Christovao Ferreira, misionaris Yesuit yang pernah menjadi gurunya, meninggalkan imannya setelah mengalami "lubang penyiksaan" di Nagasaki. Kabar ini membuat panik dan bisa berbahaya bagi kelangsungan hidup rohani umat. Karena itu, Rodrigues bersama teman-temannya meminta dikirim menjadi misionaris ke Jepang.

Setelah bertahan beberapa lama, akhirnya Rodrigues ditangkap Inoue, Gubernur Chikugo yang licin dan kejam, akibat pengkhianatan Kichijiro. Perlahan-lahan Rodrigues harus menyaksikan umat yang dilayaninya mati demi mempertahankan iman. Yang mengguncang iman Rodrigues adalah fakta Tuhan tetap membisu di hadapan kematian yang seakan sia-sia (hal 154).

Kebisuan Tuhan! Problem teodise itulah yang terus muncul pada hampir sebagian besar novel Silence. Kebisuan itulah, bukan pengalaman di "lubang penyiksaan" mengerikan, yang membuat Ferreira meninggalkan imannya. "Dengarkan!" kata Ferreira kepada Rodrigues. "Aku ditempatkan di sini dan aku mendengar suara orang-orang itu dan Tuhan tidak berbuat apa-apa. Tuhan tidak bertindak sedikit pun. Aku berdoa dengan sepenuh kekuatanku. Tetapi, Tuhan tidak berbuat apa-apa" (hal 263).

Ferreira sudah mengambil sikap dan sampai pada kesimpulan, "Negeri ini ibarat rawa. Suatu hari nanti kau akan menyadarinya sendiri," kata dia kepada Rodrigues. "Dan rawa ini keadaannya lebih parah daripada yang bisa kau bayangkan. Setiap kali kau menanam tunas muda di rawa ini, akarnya mulai membusuk, daunnya menguning dan layu. Dan kita telah menanam tunas muda kristianitas di rawa-rawa ini" (hal 234). Karena itu ia meninggalkan imannya, termasuk sumpah selibatnya, serta berusaha menjadi orang Jepang.

Sementara pada Rodrigues, protagonis Endo, kita menemukan sikap lebih bernuansa. Rodrigues juga mengalami pengalaman kebisuan Allah yang mengerikan, dan bahkan menginjak-injak fumie, gambar wajah Yesus atau Bunda Maria di atas lempengan perunggu, bukti penyangkalan imannya. Apa yang mendorong dia menginjak fumie justru suara Kristus. "Injaklah! Injak!" kata wajah di fumie itu padanya. "Aku lebih tahu daripada siapa pun tentang kepedihan di kakimu. Injaklah! Aku lahir ke dunia memang untuk diinjak-injak manusia. Untuk menanggung penderitaan manusialah aku memanggul salibku" (hal 269).

Lewat kutipan itu, menurut Emi Mase-Hasegawa dalam esainya, Inter-Religio 43, (Summer 2003), Endo sesungguhnya sedang menggugat pandangan kekristenan Barat yang terlalu mengagungkan syuhada dan sekaligus memberi pemahaman kristologi alternatif. Bagi Mase-Hasegawa, Tuhan tidak membutuhkan syuhada yang mati bagi-Nya. Karena itu, Tuhan tetap membisu. Itu tidak berarti Ia tidak menyertai umat-Nya. Dialog batin Rodrigues dengan Allah di akhir Silence menegaskan hal itu:

"Tuhan, aku benci kebungkamanmu."

"Aku tidak bungkam. Aku ikut menderita di sampingmu." (hal 295)

Menurut saya, persis problem teodise, kebisuan Tuhan dan visi kristologi alternatif inilah yang membuat Silence selalu memikat dibaca lagi dan lagi. Bahkan, Martin Scorsese berniat mengadaptasinya menjadi film tahun ini. Karena Endo mengajukan pertanyaan sangat krusial bagi kita—bila(kah) kita memang sungguh-sungguh mau tetap beriman, bahkan di tengah kebisuan Allah menyaksikan tragedi kemanusiaan(?).

Trisno S. Sutanto, Mahasiswa STF Driyarkara dan aktivis Masyarakat Dialog Antar Agama, Jakarta

Sumber: Kompas, 12 April 09